Saturday, 3 October 2009

Japan's Nikkei breaks below key levels

In Asian trading on Friday October 2nd, 2009 the Nikkei 225 broke below two major support levels as the chart above reveals. The index completed its move below all three key moving average levels with a close below the 200 day EMA (the green line on the chart). In addition there is a clear violation of the uptrend line through the lows since the March bottom.

If the yen continues to strengthen against the US dollar, and if US consumers continue to lose jobs, the outlook for the Nikkei increasingly looks like a prolongation of its 20 year bear market.

On the subject of US non-farm payrolls it is worth noting that if the one million plus workers that have "left" the US labor force since May (i.e. they are too discouraged to look for work and drop off the official statistics) were added back into the unemployment figure the U3 percentage would be 10.4%.

For a good discussion of the real way to look at the US employment data the following article is recommended.

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