Thursday, 9 July 2009

Chartreuse shoots from Mr Bond

Some time ago I wrote a piece about Tim "Chartreuse Shoots" Bond, the eternal optimist who heads up the global asset allocation group at BarCap.
In his latest deliberations Mr. Bond is becoming even more euphorically bullish about the coming quarter and in so doing, like many who inhabit the bubble planets to be found at Canary Wharf and on Wall Street, finds much to celebrate about the recent employment data released last Thursday.
The June payrolls report, contrary to market perception, was entirely consistent with the recovery story. The return to positive growth, whether in output, profits or employment, is in the process of occurring right now, with the “turning point” covering the June-September period.
This is quite an assertion and, on the one hand, we are told to pay attention to the data points because that is where the evidence for this major turning point is to be found, and on the other hand, that historical data cannot really guide us.
And since we are in the midst of the cyclical turning point, historic data is of very little relevance to the actual state of the economy. We reiterate our advice to use the current pause in the cyclical asset rally to add to long exposures.
So that's all perfectly clear then.

I would keep an eye on Barclays and Barcap as these guys are the Masters of the Universe in waiting. Unlike Ian Fleming's hero, who always seemed to get himself out of a tight corner, Barcap's Mr. Bond may not have the panache to keep spinning the forecasts the way Mr. Diamond wishes.

No comments:

Post a Comment